2015 Fed Cup 1st Round Preview

The Australian Open is over, and the Fed Cup takes center stage for the women, as the calendar shifts a little bit this year.  This is the biggest Fed Cup weekend of the year with the eight World Group I & II ties, the three Zonal Group I's, plus Europe/Africa Zonal Group II.

World Group I

Czech Republic at Canada: Bouchard, Kvitova, and Safarova are all absent as well as a host of other top 100 Czechs (Canada will the big home court) but Karolina Pliskova is here and that should be enough to carry the defending champions through versus Fichman, Dabrowski, and Abanda.  Hradecka and Smitkova are the other Czechs.  Where is Bouchard when you really need her?  CZE 3 CAN 0

France at Italy: This could be a good one with Errani, Vinci, and Giorgi against Cornet, Garcia, and Mladenovic.  What's big here is it is in Italy and on clay, and another turning point could be whether Vinci plays singles, she's hasn't been in great form but she's a Fed Cup stud.  This is a tough one to call but I'm going with the home side and the world's top doubles team (though Mladenovic is no slouch).  I think they'll find a way to gut out a victory, just don't ask me to pick any of the singles winners.  ITA 3 FRA 2

Russia at Poland:  With the Olympics around the corner, Sharapova is back interested in Fed Cup as she and Pavlyuchenkova, and Kuznetsova, take on the Radwanska sisters in their hometown of Krakow.  Outside of the Australian Open finalist, the Russians are in bad form, so I'm going with the big upset.  The court surface in hard court too, so I'll give Aga a fighting chance against Sharapova.  POL 3 RUS 1

Australia at Germany:  The Germans disappointed in Melbourne but the Aussies didn't exactly light the world on fire either.  Stosur is good in Fed Cup outside of Australia but with Dellacqua and Gajdosova behind her I don't think the visitor's can match the depth of Kerber, Petkovic, Lisicki, and Goerges.  I'm beginning to second guess myself but I'll still with... GER 3 AUS 1

World Group II

Slovakia at Netherlands:  The Dutch are a solid team when it comes to Fed Cup and their home but I think Cibulkova will prove too much, without her I may pick Bertens, Hogenkamp, and Rus to best Rybarikova and Schmiedlova.  But Cibulkova is going to be tough to beat and the Slovaks are better to begin with.  SVK 3 NED 1

**EDIT: Cibulkova is no longer on the Slovak roster so this becomes an interesting tie and being at home with some Fed Cup upset queens I think the Dutch will get this done, although it's possible it turns into quite a battle.  NED 3 SVK 1

Spain at Romania:  Muguruza will don a Spanish uniform for the first time, so it's a pity Suarez Navarro won't join her.  This tie is not on clay though and that's always important for Spanish team events.  But with Muguruza the visitors will have a chance if Halep isn't on her A-game because the supporting cast of Begu, Niculescu, and Dulgheru isn't a formidable of last year's Romanian team with an in-form Cirstea.  I don't think Spain has enough firepower here and I think Halep will find a way to bounce back and beat Muguruza.  ROU 3 ESP 1

Switzerland at Sweden:  Larsson and Arvidsson have been Fed Cup stalwarts for the Swedes but Arvidsson's results have really fallen off as of late and now she's only the 4th-ranked player on her own team.  I can't imagine the home team putting up much resistance to Bencic and Bacsinszky.  SUI 3 SWE 0

United States at Argentina:  I realize Argentina is good at home on clay but this is a team with 3 Australian Open quarterfinalists and two of them are named Williams.  The only real question here is who is going to play the singles matches.  I pity Ormaechea and Irigoyen.  USA 3 ARG 0

(Canada, France, and Poland were promoted from World Group II last year.  Slovakia, Spain, and the USA were relegated from World Group I last year.  Netherlands and Romania were promoted from Zonal Group I last year.)

Europe/Africa Zonal Group I
Budapest, Hungary

Group A: Austria, Hungary, Serbia^
Group B: Great Britain, Liechtenstein*, Turkey, Ukraine
Group C: Belarus, Bulgaria, Georgia*, Portugal
Group D: Belgium, Croatia, Israel, Latvia

^ Relegated from World Group II in 2014
* Promoted from Zonal Group II in 2014

At first glance, Serbia is the overwhelming favorite in Group A, but they're missing their top 3 players Ivanovic, Jankovic, and Jovanovski, leaving Krunic and some unknowns to battle Mayr-Achleitner's Austrians and Babos' home Hungarians.  But Krunic is still the best player in the group and play doubles too so I think the Serbs may advance here, but I won't completely rule out Hungary, playing at home.

Group B likely comes down to the Britain/Ukraine tie and there I like the 1-2 punch of Svitolina and Tsurenko versus Watson and likely Konta since is unavailable.

Azarenka makes her heralded return to Fed Cup alongside decent players Sasnovich and Govortsova and they'll take on Pironkova and her Bulgarians and okay teams in Georgia and Portugal, who have punched above their weight before.  Without Azarenka, Bulgaria has a chance but with her the Belorussians should sweep aside the competition.

Group D would be the group of death, to coin the soccer term.  Belgium with red-hot Wickmayer, not to mention Flipkens, the young Croats Vekic and Vonjuh, former world no. 11 Peer, and the not to be discounted rising junior star Ostapenko for Latvia.  Croatia generally plays well in Fed Cup and Peer generally doesn't, but I think the Belgians will have too much firepower.

Promotion ties: BEL def. SRB, BLR def. UKR (but don't sleep on Ukraine here if this happens)
Relegation ties: AUT def. ISR, GEO def. LIE

Americas Zonal Group I
San Luis Potosi, Mexico

Group A: Brazil, Chile*, Colombia
Group B: Bolivia*, Mexico, Paraguay, Venezuela

With Canada and Argentina now making their home in the World Groups, this is a small group and it's really Brazil's to lose and there's not too much talent here.  I keep waiting for Cepede Royg and Gonzalez to boost Paraguay to a playoff spot but I may be waiting forever.  Colombia seems to have fallen off with the plateau-ing of Duque Marino and the retirement of Castano, so Pereira should be able to lead the Brazilians past Colombia and then likely Paraguay for another playoff spot.

Asia/Pacific Zonal Group II
Guangzhou, China

Group A: Hong Kong*, Japan^, South Korea, Uzbekistan
Group B: China, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, Thailand

A couple of uneven groups there.  Japan should be able to breeze through Group A while the host Chinese, Kazakhs, and Thais battle it out in Group B.  Remember Thailand made the playoffs last year as China, as usual, fell on their faces.  China does have their A-team this year though with Peng, Zhang, and S.Zheng while Kazakhstan has the rising Diyas and Putintseva, and the veteran Shvedova.  I don't see Thailand factoring in this year as Kumkhum has really fallen off.  Something tells me China will choke again and we may finally see the green and gold of the Kazakhs in a playoff with their home-born hero Diyas.

Promotion tie: KAZ def. JPN
Relegation tie: TPE def. KOR

Europe/Africa Zonal Group II
Tallinn, Estonia

Group A: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Egypt, Estonia*, South Africa
Group B: Finland, Ireland*, Luxembourg^, Slovenia^

^ Relegated from Zonal Group I in 2014
* Promoted from Zonal Group III in 2014

With Kanepi, Hercog, and Scheepers all in action, I would think two of Estonia, Slovenia, and South Africa will be advancing.  The Estonians and South Africans will have the advantage with capable seconds Kontaveit and Simmonds.  With the top two teams in each group advancing to the playoff, the second spot comes down to Slovenia vs the loser of Estonia/South Africa.  I'll go with EST and SLO advancing.