2015 Preview

I thought I might go ahead and write a few thoughts on what I'm expecting and looking forward to in the 2015 tennis season.  This offseason seems like it's been longer than usual, and I've definitely gone through some withdrawal.  I can't wait to see sunny Melbourne on TV in just 15 days.

ATP

Depending on the play of one or two players, this year could turn out to be a dominant one for one man or could be a back-and-forth struggle between two or could be a wild free-for-all where we never know what's going to happen or who's going to win.

Novak Djokovic seems to poised, after a fairly consistent campaign in 2014, to continue to lead the tour and be in contention to win at each major.  He did get beat a few times where it was unexpected, but he still won one major, the World Tour Finals along with 4 Masters.  I expect he will be similar form the majority of the year, but his results may depend on...

Rafael Nadal's health and form.  I don't see another clear rival for Djokovic week in and week out other than a healthy Nadal.  If healthy (and I think that's a big if at this stage of his career) he can challenge Djokovic especially on clay but also on hard courts as we've seen in recent years.  I think Nadal will come out firing at the Aussie Open and the clay season but then I expect him to wear down as the season progresses.

I really think Roger Federer can have a similar year to last year, playing fairly well in tour events and winning a Masters or two, even beating Djokovic occasionally but falling short at the major, either against Djokovic or Nadal or even a lower ranked player like a Tsonga or Berdych.  Andy Murray seems to have dropped a level and it is unclear whether he can get back to near the top.  Berdych, Ferrer, and Tsonga all also seem to have played their best tennis already.  If last year is any indication, Wawrinka could be up-and-down but he starts up after a great Tour Finals and Davis Cup and I think is a threat to defend in Melbourne.  He may play well here and there but I don't expect him to Djokovic and possibly Nadal at the top.

That leaves the younger crowd of guys like Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, and Cilic.  I think Cilic's US Open may have been a flash in the plan while Raonic put consistent results across all surfaces all year long.  The question is whether he can beat the elite players and get to a final or win a major.  I am skeptical also of whether Nishikori to maintain his great form and stay in the top 5 but he is certainly capable of beating anyone anywhere.  I have mixed feelings on Dimitrov, sometimes I think he's plateaued but then there are times when I think he can go farther.  It will be an interesting year for these four guys to see if they can take another step forward.

Summary: I think Djokovic will mostly dominate unless Nadal is healthy enough to split matches and titles with him.  Another player or two may win a major but I doubt Federer, Murray, Nishikori, or someone else will be able to be consistent enough to push for world no. 1.

Top 10 prediction: Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Raonic, Nishikori, Murray, Wawrinka, Monfils, Dimitrov, Berdych

American men: Last year was a big step forward the lower ranked American men Johnson and Sock, and mini-re-steps forward for Querrey and Young.  It was a definite plateau for Isner.  I don't see much changing for Isner and I think at some point soon Johnson will have reached his peak.  Sock will miss the Aussie Open, which stunts his ranking a bit, but I think he still has room to climb.  Young his a chance to get back into the top 50 but you never know with him.  And I've pretty much given up on Querrey.  Behind those guys there really isn't much coming.  What happened to Harrison and Williams and Kudla etc?

WTA

I think this could be another similar year for the WTA with the top trophies split between several women and also the top 8 to 10 becoming fairly consistent over the course of the year.  It will be extremely difficult to pick against Serena any given week or even to be year-end no. 1 but she will lose here and there and others will win majors.

With Serena, you also wonder how long her body can hold up as she continues to be bothered by small things here and there that prevent her from playing her best tennis on occasion.  I like the chances of Simona Halep to win a major this year, likely at the French Open, especially if she can be injury free.  She may have the best chance of pushing Serena over the course of the year, given that unlike Sharapova, she can beat Serena.  There is also the chance that Victoria Azarenka returns to the tour in good forms and in the past she has certainly challenged the American.  Another dark horse contender in former world no. 1 Caroline Wozniacki, who continued to take sets from Serena but could not get over the hump and actually beat her.  Her run to the US Open final which included that absolutely spectacular point against Sharapova in the 4th round, announced she was back and could legitimately contend for a major.

There are others too, like Sharapova, who is very difficult to beat on clay and continues to hang around.  The Russian has been a solid player the last couple years but she cannot beat Serena and now seems to have been passed by (in tournaments if not rankings) the younger players.  But her week in week out consistency should keep her a top 5 player, just not one to win multiple slams and pass Serena in the rankings.  Then there is Bouchard, who reached 2 majors semis and the Wimbledon final before slumping to close out the year, and Ivanovic, who surprisingly to me at least, is ranked no. 5 in the world.  It will interesting to see if the Canadians slump continues or if she can pick herself up at the majors and then have a more consistent year on the regular tour.  I expect her to stick around the top 10 but perhaps not have quite as more success as last year.  I don't think Ivanovic has staying power but she's proved me wrong before.  And what of Radwanska, who seems to have plateaued?  This could be a big year for her as she is being caught up to and passed by younger players.  She's been consistent on tour but she win enough big ones to get back in the top 5 and get back to major final?  I think it's possible but unlikely.

Wow, I nearly forgot to mention Kvitova, the Wimbledon champion.  She showed that she may have gotten her game and mind back together after some disappointing years.  She can beat Serena, she can beat anyone, but is a little inconsistent.  I think she'll be better this year than last but still not challenging Serena for the top spot, similar to Sharapova.

Summary: Serena will continue to be at the top of the tour but others will beat her and win titles.  We will see 3 or 4 different major winners but the top 10 will overall be more consistent.

Top 10 prediction: Serena, Halep, Azarenka, Wozniacki, Sharapova, Kvitova, Radwanska, Kerber, Petkovic, Ivanovic

American women: There are plenty of them in the top 100 but not many in the top 20 (only the Williams sisters).  Will anyone be able to become a consistent top 20 player and take that next step forward?  The top 100 ladies are Serena, Venus, Keys, Lepchenko, Stephens, Vandeweghe, Riske, McHale, Davis, Rogers, Brengle, and Gibbs with Min and Townsend on the fringe.  I fear that most of these women have reached their peak so this is something to watch this coming year.  Can Keys, Stephens, or Vandeweghe make a move?  Those would be the ones I have most confidence in.  And how far up the rankings can youngsters like Min, Townsend, and even Duval, Chirico, and Vickery go?

And finally, here's some non-American young blood to keep an eye on.  Do they keep moving up or do they plateau now that they're play all tour-level events.  Zverev, Coric, Thiem, and Vesely for the men; Bencic, Vekic, Konjuh, Diyas, and Svitolina for the women.

Well, enjoy the year, I've already written far more than I thought I would when I sat down at the computer.  I'll be tweeting @willcorbySTJ throughout the season as well as posting occasionally year.