Saturday, July 7, 2012

Wimbledon: Finals

We know all four finalists at the All England Club.  The men's final will feature a British man for the first time in 74 years, but he will an underdog against the man who will be aiming to equal Pete Sampras' 7 Wimbledon titles and his weeks at no. 1.  The women's final is akin to a David and Goliath matchup with 4-time Wimbledon champion Serena Williams against a first time major finalist.

3) Roger Federer (SUI) vs. 4) Andy Murray (GBR)

Federer and Murray have met twice before in a major final with Federer winning in straight sets each time ('08 US Open, '10 Aussie Open).  So is there any hope for Murray on Sunday?  For one thing, he does hold an 8-7 career edge against Federer though all 15 of their meetings have come on hard courts. Federer leads in sets 20-17 by my count and their only meetings at majors have been in those two finals.  Murray has had the tougher road to the final with wins over Tsonga, Ferrer, and Cilic while Federer has really only played Djokovic and several of his whipping boys.

Federer will retake no. 1 with a win and go to no. 2 with a loss. Either way, Murray stays at no. 4.

Federer - 24th major final (8th at Wimbledon), 16-7 record (6-1), last '11 French Open
Murray - 4th major final (1st at Wimbledon), 0-3 record, last '11 Aussie Open

I think Federer will be too motivated to come out and win this title and get back the number 1 ranking.  Murray should be motivated too but if history is our guide we wonder.  I do think Murray can get a set this time and wouldn't be shocked if he won, but I'm going with Federer in 4.

3) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) vs. 6) Serena Williams (USA)

The matchup reminds of the Wimbledon final 2 years ago when Serena was challenged by Vera Zvonareva.  Now with all fairness to the Pole, Radwanska comes in ranked #3 in the world (Vera was seeded 22 though injuries played a part in that) and is playing very well.  But Serena is a 13-time major champion and has won 4 Wimbledons while Radwanska just reached her maiden major semi a couple days ago.  Serena has done the heavy lifting in this tournament taking out Azarenka and Kvitova while Radwanska was beating Kerber and Kirilenko.  Their head to head is 2-0 Serena but both those matches were way back in '08 including a Wimbledon QF where Serena won 6-4 6-0.

Radwanska will become world no. 1 with a win and move up to no. 2 with a loss.  Serena moves up to no. 4 regardless of the outcome.

Serena - 18th major final (7th at Wimbledon), 13-4 record (5-2), last '11 US Open
Radwanska - 1st major final

I expect a similar scoreline to the Zvonareva match in '10 with Serena winning comfortably in straight sets.  Radwanska can build on this tournament for the future.

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