US Open Preview

The final major of the year begins on Monday and I am really getting excited about this tournament, the women's draw in particular.

With Nadal out, that leaves really three men who could legitimately win this title:  Federer, Djokovic, and Murray.  Djokovic has the inside track because Murray was draw into Federer's half but Federer and Murray are definitely a threat, especially should the other stumble early.  Murray's health is a bit of a concern but he always plays well in New York, right?  Those three are so far ahead of "the field" that it would be a complete shocker to see anyone win.  Can anyone else even beat Djokovic to reach a final?  I would be surprised to see one of those three lose before the semis.  Of the second tier players (Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga, Del Potro, etc) none really come into New York on much of an uptick in current form especially maybe Del Potro (bronze medal, Cincy SF) and possibly Isner (Canada SF, Winston-Salem SF and still alive).  Right now I'll pick Djokovic to win but that's only by the slimmest of margins, and Super Saturday plays a role.

I really like what we might see from the women in this tournament.  I can legitimately see eight of the women in top 10 winning the title, and that's because everyone seems to be playing more or less well and not getting upset very often as opposed to the last couple years where we had wide open tournaments due to players' inconsistency.  I'll just run down the top 10:
1) Azarenka - has been a little hurt and hasn't been at her best recently, but she is number 1, has the Aussie Open crown, and can beat anyone in the field
2) Radwanska - maybe a reach to win here but she did reach the Wimbledon final, she keeps on impressing this year
3) Sharapova - similar story to Azarenka and hasn't had much success in New York since she won in '06, but I'm not counting her out
4) Williams - probably the favorite because you can count on one hand her summer hard court losses in like the last 4 years, but the other big guns have done it
5) Kvitova - generally hasn't been successful in America, but then this year she wins Canada and made the SF in Cincy
6) Kerber - came from nowhere to make the SF last year, beat Serena in Cincy, and has been steadily rising this year
7) Stosur - not a great year, but she's gotten better the last couple weeks, and she is the defending champion
8) Wozniacki - probably not a threat for this title but she has reached the SF the last 3 years
9) Li - F in Canada, title in Cincy, the only question is has she peaked too early?
10) Errani - QF in the Aussie Open, F in the French Open, but with the players ranked above her, she's maybe a reach to make the QF
So if that doesn't whet your appetite, what does?  Beyond the top 10 I would be shocked to see anyone contend, but I'll throw out Venus and Lisicki if you want to hear a spoiler's name.  I say players ranked 4 through 9 excluding 8 have the best chance of these 10, and I'm going to tip Kerber to beat Li in the final for her first major, though I could easily see Serena beating Kerber in the SF or Kvitova beating Li in the same round.

Men
Defending champion:  Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Defending finalist:  Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Semifinalists:  Roger Federer (SUI), Andy Murray (GBR)
Quarterfinalists:  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), Janko Tipsarevic (SRB), John Isner (USA), Andy Roddick (USA)
Previous champions in the draw:  Federer 5 ('04,'05,'06,'07,'08), Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) ('01), Roddick ('03), Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) ('09), Nadal ('10), Djokovic ('11)
Junior champions in the draw:  David Nalbandian (ARG) ('98), Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) ('99), Roddick ('00), Gilles Muller (LUX) ('01), Richard Gasquet (FRA) ('02), Tsonga ('03), Murray ('04), Ricardas Berankis (LTU)-in qualifying ('07), Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) ('08), Bernard Tomic (AUS) ('09), Jack Sock (USA) ('10)

Women

Defending champion:  Samantha Stosur (AUS)

Defending finalist:  Serena Williams (USA)

Semifinalists:  Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), Angelique Kerber (DEN)

Quarterfinalists:  Vera Zvonareva (RUS), Andrea Petkovic (GER), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS), Flavia Pennetta (ITA) - not sure any of those 4 are getting back there

Previous champions in the draw:  S.Williams 3 ('99,'02,'08), Kim Clijsters (BEL) 3 ('05,'09,'10), Venus Williams (USA) 2 ('00,'01), Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) ('04), Maria Sharapova (RUS) ('06), Stosur ('08)

Junior champions in the draw:  Mirjana Lucic (CRO) ('96), Marion Bartoli (FRA) ('01), Maria Kirilenko (RUS) ('02), Kirsten Flipkens (BEL)-in qualifying ('03), Michaella Krajicek (NED) ('04), Victoria Azarenka (BLR) ('05), Pavlyuchenkova ('06), Coco Vandeweghe (USA) ('08), Heather Watson (GBR) ('09)

Draw quarters:
Men - Federer/Berdych vs Murray/Tsonga, Ferrer/Tipsarevic vs Djokovic/Del Potro
Women - Azarenka/Stosur (Li) vs Sharapova/Kvitova, Serena/Wozniacki vs Radwanska/Kerber