French Open: Finals

So we got the matches we were looking for, at least after the carnage of the first couple rounds.

1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs 2) Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Nadal - 20th major final (9th at the FO), 13-6 record (8-0), 3rd consecutive F
Djokovic - 13th major final (2nd at the FO), 6-6 record (0-1), last '13 US Open

Nadal leads the head-to-head 22-19 and is up 13-4 on clay but their last 8 clay matches have been split 4-4.  They have met to in the French Open 5 times, Nadal winning each time, dropping 3 sets - 2 last year and 1 in the '12 final.  In major finals, Djokovic leads 3-2 but Nadal has won the last 2 ('13 French and US Opens).

Djokovic and Nadal meet for yet another time in what has been the premier rivalry of the past 3 or so years.  Both were relatively untested in the semifinal round, and I am surprised with the swiftness that Nadal eliminated Murray.  As I've said all along, I'm not going to believe Nadal will lose at the French Open until it happens.  That said, Djokovic will have a very good chance this year.  He hasn't had a real tough match to this point in the tournament, though Nadal hasn't really either.  It should be another classic match, but I'll stick with Nadal in 5 sets.

The no. 1 ranking is also on the line on Sunday, the first time in a while where the winner of a match will take over no. 1.  So after the winner, the top 10 will be Wawrinka, Federer, Murray, Berdych, Ferrer, Del Potro, Raonic, Gulbis

4) Simona Halep (ROU) vs 7) Maria Sharapova (RUS)

Halep - 1st major final
Sharapova - 9th major final (3rd at the FO), 4-4 record (1-1), last '13 French Open

Sharapova leads the head-to-head 3-0 and is 6-1 in sets.  But the one set was one this year on clay in the Madrid final, 6-1.  The other 2 meetings were prior to the Halep breakout, at Indian Wells and Beijing in '12.

Sharapova, perhaps the queen of clay since her surgery, will seek to the French Open the only major she's won more than once.  She's had to fight through her last 3 matches but she has survived as is the favorite.  She plays the game's rising star, who prior to this year had never reached a major quarterfinal and only played her first semi yesterday.  But Halep was a girl's champion at the FO, so that could give her more confidence.  The more I think about this, the more I think Sharapova will prevail, and I'm now to the point where I'll say straight sets (despite my next sentence), thanks primarily to players folding in the moment of their first final.  However, Sharapova has lost 4 major finals, 2 to Serena and 2 to first time finalists (Kvitova and Azarenka).

The women's top 10 is now Serena, Li, Halep, Radwanska, Kvitova or Sharapova, Jankovic, Azarenka, Kerber, Cibulkova