Friday, July 4, 2014

Wimbledon: Finals

The favorites came through the semis on the men's side at Wimbledon, and Bouchard will contest a maiden major final against a woman who has won this title before.

1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs 4) Roger Federer (SUI)

Djokovic - 14th major final (3rd at Wimbledon), 6-7 record (1-1), 2nd consecutive F
Federer - 25th major final (9th at Wimbledon), 17-7 record (7-1), last '12 Wimbledon

Federer still leads the head-to-head 18-16.  They have played just once on grass, the '12 Wimbledon semis, won by Federer in 4 sets.  They have played 3 times this year, Federer winning in Dubai and Monte Carlo and Djokovic winning in Indian Wells.  They have played 1 major final, the '07 US Open, won by Federer 7-6 7-6 6-2.

Maybe I'm leading too much with my heart in this matchup but I think Federer will win and take his 18th major.  Even over the last few years where Federer has "declined", he has still been able to Djokovic several times, as evidenced by him still leading the head-to-head.  Federer has been in great form this tournament and has lost his serve (and a set) only once, against Wawrinka.  Djokovic has lost at least a set in nearly all his matches.  I'm actually going to go with Federer in straight sets.

If Djokovic wins the title, he will take world no. 1 from Nadal.  Federer has already secured the no. 3 ranking.  The top 10 will be Djokovic or Nadal, Federer, Wawrinka, Berdych, Raonic, Ferrer, Del Potro, Dimitrov, Murray

6) Petra Kvitova (CZE) vs 13) Eugenie Bouchard (CAN)

Kvitova - 2nd major final (2nd at Wimbledon), 1-0 record (1-0), last '11 Wimbledon
Bouchard - 1st major final!

The finalists have met just once before, with Kvitova winning 6-3 6-2 at the '13 Rogers Cup, so that isn't particularly helpful

This has the potential to be a very good final, and I'm still a little unsure of what we'll see from Bouchard, though I do believe she'll handle the pressure OK.  Kvitova is a former champion and I think she'll find a way to prevail.  I'm going to pick Kvitova in two tight sets but a win by Bouchard isn't out the question.  Bouchard hasn't lost a set yet at this tournament although Kvitova has lost just one, to Venus.

By the way, adding this pair, the last 5 majors been contended by 10 different women.

Kvitova has now passed Radwanska and has locked up the no. 4 ranking.  Bouchard is at no. 7 and would pass Sharapova for no. 6 with a win.  The women's top 10 is now Serena, Li, Halep, Kvitova, Radwanska, Sharapova or Bouchard, Kerber, Jankovic, Azarenka

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