US Open: Early Rounds

With the staggered start of the US Open (3 days for men's first round and 2 days for the women's), it can be a little difficult to have succinct review post.  I wrote most of this content about noon Friday and then updated in the evening to reflect the men's second round (notwithstanding Federer vs Groth).  All women's round 3 action is ignored since the post is to cover the first 2 rounds.

The first round was pretty blase this year, with only a combined 8 seeds going out in the two draws put together.  Only 12th seed Cibulkova's stunning defeat to a 15-yr-old American was very surprising.  But in the 2nd round round, Radwanska (who I thought might contend) and Ivanovic were sent packing.  Former champ Stosur also was eliminated, a mild surprise given how she's been playing better recently.  The men, however, continued to advanced as usual, with the exception of dark horse candidate Gulbis.

The women have had a few younger players make nice runs so far.  Karolina Pliskova beat Ivanovic and is still alive, Bencic has made her first major 3rd round appearance, and qualifier Krunic from Serbia took out Keys and is still playing.  On the men's side, 17-yr-old Coric upset Rosol but then was taken by my favorite Dominican (Estrella), who reaches his first ever major 3rd round as continues to reach new heights.  Kyrgios has followed his Wimbledon quarterfinal with two wins, Youzhny and Seppi, not too shabby.  Thiem kept his steady march upward by upsetting Gulbis, coming from two sets down.

In my opinion, the Americans have mostly disappointed, especially the injuries forcing Sock and Johnson to retire.  The women had a fabulous first round, highlighted by Bellis' win over Cibulkova, but they petered out where only 4 of the 17 remain in the draw after disappointing losses by the likes of Stephens, Keys, and Vandeweghe.  And perhaps the worst story of the tournament, at least for an American, was the straight sets of Young, who had a nice runup to the US Open, to Kavcic.

American Men (5-10)
Still alive: 13-Isner, Querrey
Won one: w-Smyczek
First round losers: w-Giron (l. to Isner), Klahn, Young, w-Odesnik, Sock (ret.), Johnson (ret. up 2-1), w-Rubin, w-Harrison, w-Donaldson,
Seeds beaten: 28-Garcia-Lopez (R2 l. to Querrey)

I realize most of these guys aren't great talents, but out of 12 it would've been nice to see more than 3 first round wins although two good chances were derailed by injury.  And it's not like they were that hard of draws, they went 0-4 vs seeds in R1.  The bright spot here is Querrey, who was able to upset Garcia-Lopez in straight sets and now he'll take his shot at Djokovic.  I'm too much a realist to wonder if this means Querrey has turned the corner to return to being a top 25 player but this is a step in the right direction.

American Women (17-13)
Still alive: 1-Serena, 19-Venus, Lepchenko, w-Gibbs
Won one: King (l. to Serena), Vandeweghe, Rogers, 27-Keys, McHale, w-Bellis, 21-Stephens, w-Brengle
First round losers: w-Townsend (l. to Serena), Davis, Riske, w-Min, w-Collins
Seeds beaten: 12-Cibulkova (R1 l. to Bellis), 23-Pavlyuchenkova (R2 l. to Gibbs)

It was great first round for the young American contingent, especially when you consider they went 11-0 vs unseeded players meaning they only lost to seeds, so you can blame the draw as the 5 losers lost to Serena, Stosur, Ivanovic, Makarova, and Halep.  But then many of the remaining dozen couldn't win again with Stephens and Keys being upset, Vandeweghe falling in what I thought was a winnable vs Suarez Navarro and then some normal-ish losses by the others.  Lepchenko has had a fairly easy draw (van Uytvanck and Barthel) but at least advanced, only to play Serena, but Gibbs has been a good story with wins over a qualifier and Pavlyuchenkova.  Next she gets Pennetta in the section of the draw formerly headed by Ivanovic.  But all in all, a winning is guaranteed unless all 4 remaining players loser, which is something to be said when there are 17 of you and many still teenagers.

Overall Seeds Out
Men R1: 21-Youzhny, 24-Benneteau, 27-Giraldo, 29-Rosol
Men R2: 11-Gulbis, 25-Karlovic, 28-Garcia-Lopez, 30-Chardy, 31-Verdasco, 32-Sousa
Women R1: 12-Cibulkova, 20-Kuznetsova, 25-Muguruza, 32-Zhang
Women R2: 4-Radwanska, 8-Ivanovic, 21-Stephens, 23-Pavlyuchenkova, 24-Stosur, 27-Keys, 31-Nara

So 10 men's seeds are out (half of R2 to go) and 11 women's seeds are out.  Those are low numbers for the women and about average numbers for the women and the majority of the casualties have been lower seeds, with only 4 top 16 seeds out.  The number especially low is the 4 women's first round losers.

Unseeded Players Remaining (only half of men's draw)
Men Direct Entry: Sam Querrey (USA), Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP), Andrey Kuznetsov (RUS), Blaz Kavcic (SLO), Nick Kyrgios (AUS), Victor Estrella Burgos (DOM), Teymuraz Gabashvili (RUS), Dominic Thiem (AUT), David Goffin (BEL), Marcel Granollers (ESP)
Men Qualifier: none yet
Men Wildcard: none yet
Women Direct Entry: Varvara Lepchenko (USA), Kaia Kanepi (EST), Karolina Pliskova (CZE), Elena Vesnina (RUS), Zarina Diyas (KAZ), Belinda Bencic (SUI), Johanna Larsson (SWE), Shuai Peng (CHN)
Women Qualifier: Aleksandra Krunic (SRB), Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (CRO)
Women Wildcard: Nicole Gibbs (USA)

-There are no guaranteed unseeded quarterfinalists yet with 14 of the top 16 players still around, and actually there are no guaranteed unseeded 4th-rounders either.  That is a bit of a surprise especially on the women's side.
-Former boys USO champs still in the draw are Gasquet, Tsonga, Murray, and Dimitrov with last year's winner Coric winning one match
-Former girls AO champs still in the draw are Lucic-Baroni and Azarenka
-Hewitt, Kuznetsova, and Stosur are former champions who have been eliminated.  Federer, Djokovic, Murray, Venus, and Serena are former champions still alive.
-Of last year's quarterfinalists, only Youzhny and Hantuchova have been knocked out with Nadal and Li injured.  Djokovic, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Ferrer, Murray, Robredo, Serena, Azarenka, Pennetta, Suarez Navarro, Vinci, and Makarova are the remaining ones.

With few of the big names out, the predictions can pretty much remain as they were.  Radwanska was one I thought could contend but she has been dismissed.  Ivanovic was a popular dark horse pick but I was never sold on her.  With Ivanovic and Stosur out, Serena's path is easier, and someone will emerge (Kerber or Jankovic?) from the quarter vacated by Radwanska to reach a major semi.

A couple other quick notes:
-There have been 2 5th-set tiebreaks: 32-Sousa def. Dancevic 7-2 and 18-Anderson def. Cuevas 7-1, both in R1
-There have been 3 women's 3rd-set tiebreaks: Erakovic def. 20-Kuznetsova 7-3 in R1, 18-Petkovic def. Puig 7-5 in R2 and an epic Kanepi def. 24-Stosur 10-8 in R2
-The longest tiebreak to date was 15-13 in the midst of a battle of qualifiers, Marchenko def. Chiudinelli