US Open Preview

Here is my preview for the US Open, the final major of the year, and one where we may or may not get clarity in a year we have had 6 different major champions to date.

In my opinion, it is hard to say who the favorite is in the men's draw.  Djokovic has not been great since Wimbledon or he would be the one to point to.  Federer is the most in form but recently he hasn't be able to keep it together over 5 sets against the very best players.  Murray has struggled since the French Open.  And of course Nadal is out.  If it isn't going to be one of them, and despite Wawrinka's breakthrough I'm not sure how plausible this scenario is, then who?  It's possible Tsonga is the leading candidate after his win in the Rogers Cup.  Or perhaps Wawrinka, who reached the semis last year but he hasn't been very consistent this year.  It's tough to imagine Ferrer and Berdych doing it, especially the Czech who has struggled mightily this summer.  Really if it's not going to be a Big 4 member, I'll go with Dimitrov or Raonic, who have been steadily rising but may or may not be ready for the next step.  This could be an unpredictable tournament, and really not sure what to expect.

For the women, it is a similar plot line except that Serena stands above all as the clear favorite.  However, she is certainly not invincible this year, as evidenced by the fact that she has yet to reach a major quarterfinal in 2014.  It is possible that Serena will lose at the US Open, in which case the tournament becomes wide open.  Halep has been bothered by injury and Bouchard has been terrible since Wimbledon or they might be considered contenders, even against Serena.  Kvitova won at Wimbledon, has struggled recently until New Haven, where she is the final.  Sharapova could be a factor, but she hasn't won much off of clay since her injury.  Radwanska has been coming on strong and is a bit under the radar but she has never reached the quarters in New York.  Ivanovic is rising but hasn't been to the semis of a major in over 6 years.  Azarenka has been hurt.  A wildcard in the mix could be the former no. 1 and former finalist in New York Wozniacki, who has been very good this summer and twice took a set from Serena.  And then you never know which player ranked in the 20s will put together a nice run, see the quarterfinalists from last year.  This could turn out to be a dominating tournament for Serena or it could another wild wacky women's major.  Or a new star could be born.

As side note is that for the first time in forever, the women's no. 1 ranking is on the line.  Serena still leads Halep by over 1000 points after the '13 US Open points are subtracted, but it is possible for the her or Kvitova to move past Serena, especially if Serena loses early.  The men's no. 1 ranking is not up for grabs since Nadal withdrew.

Here are the big points defenders:
Men
F - Nadal def. Djokovic
SF - Wawrinka, Gasquet
QF - Ferrer, Murray, Robredo, Youzhny
Women
F - Serena def. Azarenka
SF - Li, Pennetta
QF - Suarez Navarro, Vinci, Makarova, Hantuchova
(quite the group of quarterfinalists last year)

Former men's champs in the draw: Hewitt, Federer, Djokovic, Murray
Former women's champs in the draw: Serena, Venus, Kuznetsova, Sharapova, Stosur
Former boy's champs in the draw: Nieminen, Muller, Gasquet, Tsonga, Murray, Dimitrov, Tomic, Sock, Coric
Former girl's champs in the draw: Lucic-Baroni, Kirilenko, Flipkens, Azarenka, Pavlyuchenkova, Vandeweghe, Watson, Min

American participants (11 men, 17 women), from top to bottom in the draw - no qualifiers:
-Querrey, w-Giron, 13-Isner, Klahn, Young, w-Odesnik, Sock, Johnson, w-Rubin, w-Harrison, w-Donaldson, w-Smyczek,
-1-Serena, w-Townsend, King, Lepchenko, Davis, Vandeweghe, Rogers, w-Gibbs, Riske, 27-Keys, McHale, w-Bellis, w-Min, 21-Stephens, w-Brengle, 19-Venus, w-Collins

First time seeds:
23-L.Mayer, 27-Giraldo, 32-Sousa, 27-Keys, 29-Dellacqua, 30-Zahlavova Strycova, 31-Nara, 32-Zhang (most of these players seemed to rise up really under the radar)

Potential quarterfinal matchups:

-Djokovic vs Murray
-Wawrinka vs Raonic
-Ferrer vs Berdych
-Federer vs Dimitrov

-Serena vs Ivanovic
-Kvitova vs Bouchard
-Radwanska vs Kerber
-Halep vs Sharapova