Monday, September 8, 2014

Serena Three-Peats Without Losing a Set, Cilic Wins a Major

The year's final major, the US Open, is complete.  Each tour had 4 different major champions this year.  But in New York for the women, it was a familiar story, Serena Williams winning a major.  For the men, for the second time this year, a new major champion broke through.  This time, it was Croat Marin Cilic.

1) Serena Williams (USA) def. 10) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 6-3 6-3

-Serena wins 63rd career title, 6th of 2014, last '14 Cincinnati
-It is her 18th major ('99 US Open, '02 French Open, '02 Wimbledon, '02 US Open, '03 Aussie Open, '03 Wimbledon, '05 Aussie Open, '07 Aussie Open, '08 US Open, '09 Aussie Open, '09 Wimbledon, '10 Aussie Open, '10 Wimbledon, '12 Wimbledon, '12 US Open, '13 French Open, '13 US Open)
-She is now tied for 2 all time with 18 majors (Evert, Navratilova) in the open era, just 4 behind Graf's 22
-It is her 6th US Open title, tying her with Evert for most in the open era
-She of course remains at no. 1 in the world

Serena showed that despite a down year at the majors, she is still the top player in the world when she is playing well.  We will see if she is still able to summon her best throughout the year in the immediate future, with everyone gunning for her and knowing she can be beat.  Is it possible for her to win 4 more majors and catch Graf?  I think it is possible but not likely.  She has had a great year overall this year but has slipped up at the majors.  But to get for majors.  She has won 3 majors in a year only once ('02) so let's say to catch Graf she has to win two majors in '15 and two in '16.  I suppose that's possible but by the time '16 rolls around, players like Halep, Bouchard, Azarenka, and maybe Wozniacki or Kvitova should be at the top of their games.

With all four majors complete and just 2 big events on the schedule, the race to Singapore begins to come into focus.  Serena, Sharapova, and Halep have clinched.  Radwanska, Kvitova, Li, and Bouchard seem likely to although they'll still have to have some OK results if someone lower down wins Wuhan (replaces Tokyo as Premier 5 event) or Beijing.  For the final spot, Ivanovic leads Wozniacki by about 150 points and Kerber by about 400 points.  Beyond these it would take some amazing tennis down the stretch by a Makarova, Cibulkova, Errani, Jankovic, or Pennetta.

14) Marin Cilic (CRO) def. 10) Kei Nishikori (JPN) 6-3 6-3 6-3

-Cilic 12th career title, 3rd of 2014 (most in one year), last '14 Delray Beach
-It is his 1st major!
-At #14, he is the lowest seed to win a major since #16 Johansson ('02 Aussie Open) and the lowest to win the US Open since unseeded Agassi ('94)
-He joins Del Potro and Wawrinka as active players with one major
-He improves to no. 9 in the world and can only gain points the rest of this year.  Nishikori will be up to no. 8 with his finals appearance.
-Djokovic stays at no. 1 with 3620 point lead over Nadal

Cilic has finally cashed in on the talent that many thought he had when he reached the Aussie Open semis over 4 years ago.  He has been in fairly good form throughout most of the year especially in the winter/spring hard court season.  We will now see if Cilic is a "one-slam wonder" or he can sustain this success and stay in the top 10 or maybe even reach the top 5 and beyond.  What we do know is that the door is now open for lower ranked players to get hot and win a major.  The Big 4 are no longer invincible.  And with Wawrinka and now Cilic winning a major, it will only give the field more confidence.

The men have 2 Masters remaining on the schedule, so the race to London becomes less clouded...or does it with Nishikori and Cilic interjecting themselves into the mix, though I believe that Cilic qualifies automatically now that he has won a major.  Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, and Wawrinka have all clinched by points and Cilic is at no. 5 but I believe he also clinches.  Then it is fairly tight with only 520 points separating Nishikori, Ferrer, Berdych, Raonic, Dimitrov, and Murray in that order.  Then it's a ways back to Tsonga and Gulbis and then a basically insurmountable gap to Bautista Agut and others.

I will be back later this week to preview Davis Cup.

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