US Open: Finals

So please raise your hand high if had a Nishikori/Cilic final...at the US Open.  This will be the first time since '05 Aussie Open (Safin def. Hewitt) that there is not a Big 4 member in the final (or actually one of Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic).  I believe the era of the Big 4 can now officially declared and I also now believe for certain that Federer will not win another major.

On the women's side, we got the final we expected from the quarterfinal stage onward.

10) Kei Nishikori (JPN) vs 14) Marin Cilic (CRO)

Nishikori - 1st major final!
Cilic - 1st major final!

Clic is the lowest seed to reach a major final since #23 Soderling at the '09 French.  The is the first meeting between two double digit seeds in a final in the open era, although it was close with #9 Safin vs #16 Johansson at the '02 Aussie Open.

Nishikori leads the head-to-head 5-2, and has won the last 3 meetings.  They have play twice this year with Nishikori winning in 3 sets in Brisbane and again in Madrid on clay in straight sets.  They have met twice at the US Open.  In '10 with Nishikori pulled it out 6-1 in the 5th by winning 2 tiebreaks while Cilic won in 4 sets in '12.  Nishikori leads 4-2 on hard courts.

This is really a tough match to pick.  Cilic beat both Berdych and Federer in straight sets while Nishikori went to 5 sets with Raonic and Wawrinka before besting Djokovic in 4 sets, so he's had more time on court.  Both players are obviously very hot, and the head-to-head makes me lean toward Nishikori, perhaps in 5 competitive sets.

In the live rankings, Nishikori is now no. 8 and Cilic is no. 12 (remember Cilic missed the second half of last year with the drug suspension so he'll only being adding points for the rest of the year).  Winning the title would Nishikori up to no. 5 and Cilic to no. 9.  In the race for the World Tour Finals, Wawrinka has clinched a spot and Nishikori is up to no. 5 there as well.  He would be 20 points from clinching a spot if he wins the title.  Cilic is currently at no. 10 but would climb to no. 5 past Nishikori if he won.  These finalists all of sudden make the race more interesting with currently players ranked 5-11 within 520 points.

1) Serena Williams (USA) vs 10) Caroline Wozniacki

Serena - 23rd major final (8th at the US Open), 18-4 record (5-2), last '13 US Open
Wozniacki - 2nd major final (2nd at the US Open), 0-1 record (0-1), last '09 US Open

Serena leads the head-to-head 8-1.  Wozniacki's lone win came in straights at '12 Miami.  In the 8 matches won by Serena, Wozniacki has won 4 sets, including 2 this year in Montreal and Cincinnati.  Seven of the matches have been on hard courts, with Serena winning six.  They have never met in a final.

After many years dud finals at the US Open, Serena and Azarenka turned in a pair of good ones two years in a row.  I believe this final between Serena and Wozniacki could be just as good.  I wonder if the Dane can pull this off.  She's grown up quite a bit this and isn't going to be intimidated by Serena. Serena occasionally gets tight in these moments and can commit errors.  But in the end I think Serena will get it done, perhaps 6-4 in the 3rd and win her 19th major.

This has the potential to be a very good final, and I'm still a little unsure of what we'll see from Bouchard, though I do believe she'll handle the pressure OK.  Kvitova is a former champion and I think she'll find a way to prevail.  I'm going to pick Kvitova in two tight sets but a win by Bouchard isn't out the question.  Bouchard hasn't lost a set yet at this tournament although Kvitova has lost just one, to Venus.

Serena making it to the final ends the streak of 5 consecutive majors all contested by different women.  But Wozniacki's inclusion makes of 11 different finalists in 6 majors.  (Bartoli, Lisicki, Serena, Azarenka, Li, Cibulkova, Sharapova, Halep, Kvitova, Bouchard, Wozniacki)