Thursday, September 4, 2014

US Open: Semifinals

The women's quarterfinals went fairly according to what one might think, especially if you weren't completely sold on Azarenka.  Wozniacki's win wasn't a surprise, but dropping just 1 game to Errani?  There were some surprises on the men's side with Nishikori taking out Djokovic and Cilic defeating Berdych, though that may not have been wholly unexpected.  Then tonight we were nearly stunned by Monfils as he went up 2-0 against Federer and then held 2 match points in the 4th set before the 5-time champion came from behind to prevail.

Here are the semifinalists:

Men
1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 24th major semifinal (8th at the US Open), 14-9 record (5-2), 3rd consecutive SF
2) Roger Federer (SUI) - 36th major semifinal (9th at the US Open), 25-10 record (6-2), 2nd consecutive SF
10) Kei Nishikori (JPN) - 1st major semifinal!
14) Marin Cilic (CRO) - 2nd major semifinal (1st at the US Open), 0-1 record, last '10 Aussie Open

-The men have now combined to reach 63/29 major semis
-Everyone has lost at least one set now since Murray took one from Djokovic
-Only Djokovic remains from those who reached the semis last year
-Nishikori is up to no. 9 in the world and Cilic is up to no. 13.
-Wawrinka came within one win of clinching his World Tour Finals spot, although I believe is already in because he won the Aussie Open.  Nishikori and Cilic each need to win another match to get into the top 8 in the points race.

I'm still sticking with a Djokovic/Federer final and Djokovic managing to pull it out, but I think Cilic will be dangerous against Federer, especially with the Swiss having the 5 setter vs Monfils.  I doubt Nishikori will be able to hang with Djokovic in a best-of-5 format especially after playing back-to-back 5 set matches, though he will get two days off.

Matchups:
-Djokovic vs Nishikori
-Federer vs Cilic

Women
1) Serena Williams (USA) - 25th major semifinal (9th at the US Open), 21-3 record (7-1), last '13 US Open
10) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) - 5th major semifinal (4th at the US Open), 1-3 record (1-1), last '11 US Open
17) Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) - 1st career semifinal!
Shuai Peng (CHN) - 1st career semifinal!

-The women have now combined to reach 32 major semis, with of course the vast majority being from Serena
-Wozniacki is only player remaining who has lost a set and she lost two, one to Rybarikova in R1 and one to Sharapova in R4
-Serena is the only one of the four to have been to the semis here last year
-Wozniacki is up to no. 10 in the rankings, Makarova to no. 15, and Peng to no. 21 (from 39)
-Serena, Sharapova, and Halep have clinched spots in the tour championships in Singapore.  Neither Woznaicki nor Makarova will get into the top 8 in the standings unless they win the title.

While it is possible for either Makarova or Peng (who has yet to drop serve in the tournament) to pull an upset, I think a Serena/Wozniacki final is likely.  That could be a good match, given their 2 meetings this summer, but I'll stick with my Serena pick.

Matchups:
-Serena vs Makarova
-Wozniacki vs Peng

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